PwC’s problematic case for the TPPA – Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Source: The Malaysian Insider

Jomo Kwame Sundaram. Source: IFPRI (https://www.flickr.com/photos/ifpri/); taken from TPPDebate.org

Jomo Kwame Sundaram. Source: IFPRI (https://www.flickr.com/photos/ifpri/); taken from TPPDebate.org

As is well-known, Pricewaterhouse Cooper (PwC) was commissioned by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Miti) to produce one of two government commissioned studies on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA).

The 2015 PwC Study on potential economic impact of TPPA on the Malaysian Economy and selected key economic sectors is the major reference for any serious consideration of the likely consequences of Malaysia’s participation in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). It therefore deserves some careful scrutiny, but a short and selective review cannot do full justice to or more importantly, the 6,350 page TPPA document itself.

The PwC study claims net economic gains for Malaysia from the TPPA on rather dubious premises. These include a GDP increase of US$107 billion to US$211 billion between 2018 and 2027, if all TPPA countries eliminate tariffs and reduce non-tariff measures (NTMs) by 25% to 50%; more than 90% of these gains are supposed to come from the reduction of NTMs.

The study was undertaken on the basis of information available before the agreement was fully negotiated in October last year. While this is crucial to recognise, it would be unfair to criticize the study for not fully anticipating the final text, and its full implications. Read more

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Fraud – Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Source: The Sun Daily

BY JOMO KWAME SUNDARAM

Jomo Kwame Sundaram. Source: IFPRI (https://www.flickr.com/photos/ifpri/); taken from TPPDebate.org

Jomo Kwame Sundaram. Source: IFPRI (https://www.flickr.com/photos/ifpri/); taken from TPPDebate.org

THE Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), negotiated in Atlanta in October 2015 and to be signed in Auckland in February 2016, favours foreign investors while imposing substantial costs on partner countries. Touted as a “gold standard” 21st century trade deal, it is critical to ascertain what gains can really be expected and whether these exceed costs.

Modest trade gains

Mainly using methodologically-moot computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, all studies so far project modest direct economic growth gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade liberalisation. Actual net gains may be even more modest, if not negative, as many assumptions in projection exercises are not in the final trade deal. Read more